★ RCP Election Map

My thoughts? I think the map gives Obama more credit than he deserves. I don't think he'll win Indiana, even if he picks Evan Bayh as his running mate. (Also of note: the last Indiana poll was taken two months ago.) McCain continues to close the gap in Minnesota, and it's conceivable that he'll take that, Michigan, and New Hampshire (which has not been polled in almost a month as well). Most telling, though, are the current polls in Colorado and Virginia, neither of which Obama can win the election without. Update: SurveyUSA just released its new Indiana poll - as mentioned above, the first in a long time - and it gives McCain a six-point lead on Obama. That means that if the election were held today, McCain would win by an electoral total of 274 to Obama's 264. There is still a long way to go until the general election, but the onus is now on Obama to do something big. He has lost a lot of his momentum this summer, and he needs a brilliant, inspiring, and specific convention speech, plus draws or outright wins in two of the three debates to pull this thing out. After both conventions, we'll have a better idea of where things stand, but right now, McCain is doing well.